Gordon Still Producing Tropical-Storm-Force Winds and Heavy Rain Across South Florida and the Upper Keys

Summary of 1:00 pm CDT

  • Location: 25.8 N   81.9 W
  • About 15 mi WSW of Marco Island, FL
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph
  • Present Movement: WNW or 300 degrees at 16 mph
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb or 29.74 inches of mercury

Watches & Warnings

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:

  • Shell Beach to Mississippi-Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:

  • West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
  • East of the Mississippi-Alabama border to Navarre

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:

  • Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • Golden Beach to Bonita Beach
  • Craig Key to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay
  • Okaloosa-Walton County Line westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas.

Discussion & Outlook

At 1:00 PM CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 81.9 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move farther away from the southwestern coast of Florida this afternoon and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday. The center of Gordon will approach the coast within the warning area along the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Gordon is expected to be near hurricane strength when it makes landfall along the central Gulf Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Hazards Affecting Land

Storm Surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Shell Beach to the Mississippi-Alabama border…3 to 5 ft.
  • Navarre Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border…2 to 4 ft.
  • Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River…2 to 4 ft.
  • Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border…1 to 2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Rainfall:  Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula.

Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through early Thursday.

These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding.

Wind:  Tropical storm conditions will continue through the afternoon in the warning areas across South Florida and the Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the central Gulf Coast warning area by late Tuesday, with hurricane conditions possible late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the hurricane watch area.

Tornadoes:  A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula.

Next Advisory:

Next complete advisory at 4:00 pm CDT.

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